5.1 Context and significance – Climate 

 

Climate is dynamic and change has always occurred. However, over the last 150 years the level and scale of change have accelerated at an exponential rate. The levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere from human activities is trapping more heat causing warming at an unprecedented rate. It is one of the biggest challenges facing the world and is already causing irreversible damage to the planet and our way of life.

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The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 6th Assessment Report shows that the average surface temperature in the UK has risen by 1.2oC since pre-industrial times and further warming is predicted even under all the decarbonisation pathways set out by the IPCC. The aim of limiting warming to 1.5oC looks increasingly difficult to achieve and risk assessment and adaptation plans are preparing for warming up to 4oC. 

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UK climate projections suggest a change in rainfall patterns, and it is predicted that events now considered “extreme”, such as the exceptionally wet 2012 UK summer, will become more commonplace. It has been estimated that by 2035 an additional £20 million of spending on flood defences annually will be needed to maintain current levels of flood risk. Adaptability to climate change is a key consideration for future flood and coastal erosion management plans. However, the Committee on Climate Change has recently warned of national underinvestment in long term adaptive flood management.

 

There are predictions for climate change impacts on the natural environment – if hotter, drier summers and warmer, wetter winters materialise some species may disappear from the Quantock Hills and others may start to colonise including new pests and diseases. Timings of biological events may also alter: hatching times for some moth species are already thought to be changing in the National Landscape, affecting the breeding success of pied flycatchers and other migrant species in the upland oakwoods.

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Frequent summer droughts and an increase in wildfires may lead to significant species change in our heathland and the upland oakwoods could be subject to increased storm damage and disease. The risk of flooding of all types may be increasing with potential landscape-specific impacts such as rising sea levels affecting coastal and intertidal habitats, while storm surges could lead to an increased level of coastal erosion. 

 

Arable farming may increase with farmers able to grow new crops or varieties and extend the growing period for current ones, however farming is likely to become more challenging with greater extremes of temperature and rainfall and more frequent damaging storms. 

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Water resources are likely to be stretched with more severe drought periods, perhaps leading to pressure for new reservoir storage capacity in upland catchments. Drought will also have implications for the management of hill livestock, with limited natural watering places. 

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Climate change is, in part, driven by human activity including land use. Appropriate land use and actions that can capture carbon, known as sequestering, can be achieved through small measures and have additional benefits for biodiversity. Further nature-based solutions, as well as sequestering carbon, have other benefits in terms of climate such as reducing flood risk. Regenerative agricultural systems can improve soil health, increasing resilience of grasslands and crops to climate extremes. Enhancement of soil structures and management will enhance carbon storage, called carbon stocks, within those soils. Some habitats in the Quantock Hills, such as unimproved grasslands and upland heathlands already have high carbon stocks. Therefore, the likely carbon stock of existing habitats should be taken into account when planning habitat change ensuring carbon stores are not lost. Restoring habitats such as unimproved grasslands or creating woodlands in the right location will increase carbon sequestration across the Quantock Hills, as well as providing other benefits such as nature recovery or flood risk mitigation.  

 

Land management is not the only source of carbon emissions within the Quantock Hills. Other sectors such as energy use, transport, the built environment, business and water resources all have the potential to generate carbon emissions. The need to move away from a fossil-fuel based economy is essential, however it needs to be coupled with a reduction in resource demand, using less energy, reducing waste and encouraging greater efficiency.  

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The rural landscape of the Quantock Hills can make it harder to make the transition to zero carbon. Some climate change mitigation and adaptation measures have the potential to adversely affect the natural beauty of the National Landscape, but with careful design and implementation, measures can conserve and even enhance the special qualities of the Quantock Hills. However, it is a significant challenge to develop a pathway to net zero which also conserves and enhances the natural beauty.  

 

Mitigation and adaption 

Climate change mitigation are actions that reduce or prevent greenhouse gases emissions from human activities. Slowing down the increase in greenhouse gases will slow the pace of climate change reducing the worst consequences.  

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From the UNDP – What is climate change? reducing greenhouse gas emissions can be achieved by:  

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• Reducing use of fossil fuels. Fossils fuels are the biggest sources of greenhouse gas emissions and transitioning to renewable energy sources such as solar, wind and geothermal power and developing sustainable modes of transportation is crucial.  
   

• Improving energy efficiency. Using less energy overall, in buildings, industries, public and private spaces, energy generation and transmission, and transportation will reduce emissions. This can be achieved through changes such as better insultation in buildings, increasing energy efficiency in appliances and improving energy transmission systems.  
   

• Changing agricultural practices. Certain farming methods release high amounts of methane and nitrous oxide, which are potential greenhouse gases. Regenerative agricultural systems – including improving soil health, reducing livestock-related emissions, direct seeding techniques and using cover crops – support mitigation, improve resilience and decrease costs for farmers.  
   

• Sustainable management and conservation of forests. Woodlands act as carbon sinks, absorbing carbon dioxide and reducing the overall concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Measures to reduce deforestation and forest degradation are key for climate mitigation and generate multiple additional benefits such as biodiversity conservation and improved water cycles.  
   

• Restoring and conserving critical ecosystems. In addition to forests, habitats such as wetlands, peatlands and grasslands also contribute significantly to carbon sequestration, while supporting biodiversity and enhancing climate resilience. 
   

• Creating a supportive environment. Investments, policies and regulations that encourage emission reductions, such as incentives, carbon pricing and limits on emissions from key sectors are crucial to driving climate change mitigation.  

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Somerset's Climate Emergency Strategy identifies that the climate will move towards warmer wetter winters, increased severity of storms and hotter, drier summers. These changes to our climate are already impacting our landscape affecting the special qualities of the Quantock Hills. 

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Climate change adaptation refers to actions taken to adjust to a warming world and the likely weather patterns expected. The Quantock Hills National Landscape can play a vital role in adapting to climate change and building resilient landscapes for future generations.  

 

Since 2015 the Quantock Hills National Landscape Partnership has worked in partnership with FWAG-SW, Natural England and others promoting natural flood management (NFM) strategies in the Quantock Hills. Natural flood management harnesses the natural processes of rivers, floodplains and coastlines to reduce flooding and coastal erosion. In practice these can take the form of woody dams, blocking drainage channels, rewetting peat bogs, creating or restoring ephemeral ponds, which allow land to hold water longer and sustain river flow during dry periods. The typography of the Quantock Hills, with a significant number of very small stream systems feeding into a number of water catchments and steep headwaters provides opportunities for nature-based solutions. To make meaningful contributions to there will need to be significant numbers of these. As part of this a four-year project was undertaken which installed woody dams and “ghost” ponds at a number of locations across the hilltops as part of FWAG-SW Hills to Levels project, funded by the Somerset Rivers Authority (SRA). This showed the benefit of nature-based solutions and highlighted the need for further work and research into the most effective use of this type of strategies.  

 

Taking a risk assessment approach provides an opportunity to identify climate risks, incorporate them into management processes and encourage early engagement with stakeholders to address climate change challenges.  

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The Quantock Hills National Landscape Partnership undertook a climate change risk assessment in 2024 – see appendix 2 [pdf] for the full risk assessment – which highlighted the following risks: ​

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